Subscribe to receive email alerts every time we publish new research about the topics you’re interested in. Constituency data alone can’t always tell us how a particular demographic group voted. The Conservatives also won in areas with lower-than-average house prices, though these tended to be areas with relatively high levels of overall home ownership. Younger and older voters also disagree about Brexit. elsewhere. There has always been a tendency for the Conservatives to be favoured in greater numbers by older rather than younger voters, with the opposite being true for Labour. Conversely, the Liberal Democrats used to pride themselves on attracting support from both sides of the class divide. All of the Lib Dems’ seats had 00:00 / 01:21. Conservatives won 24 (18%). The UK is on the verge of yet another General Election – the third in four years. small population of 18-34 year olds, a BME population of less than 2%, and one The tipping point, that is the age at which a voter is more likely to vote Conservative than Labour, is now 40 – down from 47 at the last election. Labour won in 88 seats where over a quarter of the population was aged 18-34. There were not enough ethnic minority candidates in UK general elections previous to 2005 to allow for any nationwide analysis, nor the individual-level data on ethnic minority political behaviour provided by the 2010 Ethnic Minority British Election Study, but examples from a few constituencies suggest that mobilisation on the basis of ethnicity is a definite possibility. people living in cities. The young black medic was shot dead when police raided her home in Louisville, Kentucky, a year ago. The 2019 election shows that not yet solving the problem of how to appeal to ethnic minority voters is not yet an existential electoral issue. This trend has been in evidence for some time. Overall, the voting patterns in the Brexit referendum are complex. BAME Remainer motivations. At present the Conservatives are 15 points ahead of Labour among men, but by 11 points among women. But it has been There is considerably less evidence regarding the voting patterns of ethnic minority voters than exists with regard to the rest of the electorate. These two groups differ little in how they propose to vote at this election. The Conservatives won in the three most expensive Share. At 19%, the party's support among middle-class voters is markedly higher than among working-class supporters (10%). A lot of it comes from the 2011 Census, and some seats will have seen demographic changes over the last eight years. class Party identification: people have an emotional attachment to a particular party- it is ‘their’ party Issue-voting: voters choose the party they think will most likely benefit them. A much bigger difference is to be observed between those from different ethnic backgrounds. That claim is now more difficult to sustain. EU closes ranks over Covid surge and vaccine delays, Hungry, angry and fleeing horrors in Mozambique, Actress stages naked protest at 'French Oscars'1, Racist slur overheard as basketball players kneel2, Italy tightens Covid restrictions amid 'new wave'3, Met officer in court over Sarah Everard death4, Protest to mark police killing of Breonna Taylor5, Homemade submarine seized in Spanish drugs raid6, Bolivia's ex-president arrested for 'coup'7, Moscow police detain 200 people at opposition forum9, Former F1 commentator Walker dies at 9710. Constituencies with a higher proportion of 18-34 year olds tended to have lower levels of home ownership, as well as higher proportions of people from BME backgrounds. people from ethnic minority backgrounds are eligible to vote, how many are registered (electors), and how many actually go February 2019 to vote? However, this is primarily due to a large Labour lead among those who did not vote in 2017 because … At each of the last three elections, the Conservatives have advanced more strongly than Labour among working-class voters. The kind of job that someone does is expected to make very little difference to how they will vote at this election. See how your area voted yesterday. Have UK voters changed their minds on Brexit? likely to be won by Labour. Labour performed better than the Conservatives amongst Organisations like Ipsos MORI Either way, it is clear that age, not social class, is the division that nowadays lies at the heart of British party politics and will play a significant role on 12 December. This piece uses Opinium polling on the leaders of the parties competing in the general election across the UK. According to Ipsos Mori, such a pattern - with Labour performing a little more strongly among women than men - has been in evidence since the 2005 election. Only half (52%) of those who voted leave in 2016 and Labour in 2017, stuck with the Labour party in 2019. Does your demographic The first … Who truly was the most dishonest president? looked at, and for which we have robust constituency data. Labour since 2010 – and with an increasing majority. The most striking difference of all is between younger and older voters. Young people and ethnic minorities are in danger of missing out on the chance to vote in the general election, new figures show. voted, we can get a picture from national polling. The same pattern occurred in 2015 with BME voters supporting Labour with 65% of the vote, compared with 23% with the Conservative party. According to Ipsos Mori, such … George Floyd death: How will jurors be selected? Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) voters, while 20% voted for the Conservatives There are also separate reports for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. Meanwhile, The 2011 United Kingdom census recorded a reduced share of White British people in the United Kingdom from the previous 2001 United Kingdom census. 25 of the previous 27 ethnic minority MPs retained their seats and were joined by 16 new ethnic minority MPs. There is a clear cut divide in the UK, with white voters predominantly voting Conservative, and black and minority ethnic (BME) people voting Labour. In 2019, the median hourly pay for those in the White ethnic group was £12.40 per hour compared with those in ethnic minority at £12.11 per hour – a pay gap of 2.3%, its narrowest level since 2012. We can also look at how For the first time at a General Election more ethnic minority women will be elected than men, reversing the pre-2017 pattern of ethnic minority politicians being more likely to be male. of the highest home ownership rates of all constituencies. amongst voters aged 25-34. I will try in this article to explain the two frameworks and the implications on how it affects the voting pattern by ethnic minorities. By contrast, 45% of social renters and 46% of private renters voted Labour. 7 Dec 2019, 12:48 pm. We have to be careful when making inferences from constituency data. About the author: Cassie Barton is a statistician at the House of Commons Library, specialising in demographic statistics. ownership and larger young and BME populations. We focus on age, A lot of these demographics are correlated at constituency level. Find out more about how we use cookies. 'We women are pushed out of work because of childcare' Video'We women are pushed out of work because of childcare', How a woman's death sparked UK soul-searching, Army of volunteers restore lost photos after tsunami, How eating online is bringing women freedom. seats (26%). Sefton Central (Liverpool), for example, has a relatively In the UK context, Becker and Fetzer (2016) examine immigration from Eastern Europe as a potential driver of support for the UK Independence Party, while Fetzer (2018) explores the role of austerity policies since 2010. YouGov The results from the General Election 2019 are in and the Conservative Party have secured a majority. At the time, around 64% of UK households owned their home, Sir John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University, and senior research fellow at NatCen Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe. which includes an extensive range of data. The Liberal Democrats won just over six in ten (63%) of their 2017 base, although attracted roughly equal levels of support from 2017 Conservative and Labour voters. Britain: the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. General Election 2019: full results and analysis, House of Commons Library. Conversely, 65 seats where over a quarter of the population was aged 65 and above went to the Conservatives, while just two went to Labour. Younger voters are more likely to have voted Remain and older ones for Leave. Influences on Voting Patterns Factors in voting - the theories. Demographic data about Also striking, however, is the strength of support for the Lib Dems among graduates. (The polls are GB-wide. The key findings are: Black and minority ethnic people remain highly supportive of the Labour party, with 68% (two-thirds) voting Labour.